Misreading Past Results

Hey guys, guess what? 2008 Hanley Ramirez is not walking through that door. No Hanley Ramirez that accumulated the pitcher vs. batter stats you're looking at is gonna walk through that door. Just stop. Wait. Maybe he'll turn it around. But Hanley - and for that matter Albert Pujols - have great historical stats against EVERYONE. We're all looking for a reason to take Hanley at his depressed price but if that name was Jhonny Peralta and not Hanley Ramirez you certainly wouldn't be taking him right now. Everytime you check his historical stats there is a good chance Hanley raked that pitcher because that's what he has done up until last year. If he starts showing signs of turning it around - or at least caring if he turns it around - then maybe it's time. But stop paying for past results and stop letting past results dictate your decisions today.

Which brings me to the point of this article. Is that easy to say when Hanley sucks? Yes. Is he going to go 4/5 with 2 HR today to make me look foolish? Maybe, but so could Elvis Andrus and he is still near the same price and on the rise, not looking like a shell of his former self. Here are some tips to help stop misreading past results and use them to your advantage.

• Use past results as a push to take a guy you already wanted, not as a starting point. Outliers, bad days, hanging breaking balls, they happen. So does regression to a mean. You can use stats to tell you whatever story you want to hear. Better questions: does this pitcher objectively suck at baseball? Is he going to suck today?
• Make sure that this is the same hitter - and same pitcher - that accumulated those results. As mentioned, Hanley isn't .330 with 30 HR anymore. Charlie Morton isn't batting practice anymore. Adjust accordingly.
• Past results don't show home/road splits. Some hitters are more comfortable at home and pitchers less comfortable on the road. If the hitter is on the road and pitcher is at home, but you're looking at past results that include both you could be in line for disappointment.

Hope that helps in your research, if you do any. Past results are great, but always look both ways before crossing the 'Street.