Predicting The Bounceback Start

Welcome to my Draftstreet blog. As an addicted avid DS player since its inception late last summer, I have seen the site steadily improve, grow and transform. Competition is fierce no matter the buyin so you've got to squeak out value in any way possible. One of my most consistently successful manners of doing this is to take a pitcher that got rocked last time out and throw him in there again in a more favorable matchup. Here are some recent examples.

The Cagey Vet

Anyone who had Ryan Dempster, aka the Dumpster, in his start at Arizona (and part of me wants to spend a few paragraphs scolding you for taking him on the road in a severe hitter's park, but that's not the point here) knows pain: 0 1/3 IP, 7 ER, -8.18 DS PTS. I would bet that most of the users that took him in that game glazed over him his next start while cursing under their breath. Those that have thick skin, or didn't have to suffer through that, saw something different: opportunity. Here was an Opening Day starter, in a pitcher's park in Chavez Ravine, against a middling Dodgers lineup, with something to prove. A guy who many didn't even want to think about actually became a no-brainer the other direction. A solid pitcher with a depressed price based on what looked like an aberration.

Bounceback Line: 7 IP, 1 ER, 5K, 6.25 DS PTS.

It's Newsworthy

Statistics are great. I look at them far more than is reasonable or helpful, but it can be just as important to listen to words and analysis. Take Ubaldo Jimenez. I hadn't selected him yet this year and wasn't planning on doing so because his starts were far too shaky to justify his price tag. Then I came across a blurb in his notes: "Ubaldo Jimenez thinks he's identified a mechanical flaw after watching video with catcher Chris Iannetta." Good enough for me. I decided to just throw out his April in my head and get a star pitcher at a mid-tier price against the decimated Giants. Vegas confirmed this by setting the over/under on his duel with Cain at 6 runs.

Bounceback Line: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 7 K, 7.25 DS PTS.

Death By Single

Some of the more fun to gamble on players in daily fantasy baseball are the guys that can really get rocked. In particular, I'm thinking of sinkerballers that when the ground balls find holes can get ravaged by what I refer to as "Death by Single." A guy like Justin Masterson or Fausto Carmona, who probably talk about throwing sinkers the other three days of the week they're not pitching, are prime examples of this. Sometimes the sinker doesn't sink. Or worse, they can be cruising right along and then you blink and they've given up 7 singles in an inning to the tune of 5 earned runs, running up the pitch count and taking them out of the game. Recently Carmona got knocked around by the struggling Twins offense to the tune of 7 hits and 6 earned runs in 5 innings. Masked in that is that he only gave up one extra base hit, and didn't help matters by walking 4 guys. He lost -3.5 DS PTS that day and likely killed your team. So when he faced the Royals his next turn, at home, it was time to gamble.

Bounceback Line: 7 IP, W, 2 ER, 2 K, 5 DS PTS.

As you know by now, the name of the game is value. Don't pay for career starts because they're unlikely to be matched, and don't fear the occasional blowup from a reliable pitcher because it's literally his job (and that of his pitching coach and catcher) to figure out what went wrong and fix it. Here are some candidates for bounceback starts among tonight's starting pitchers:

• John Lannan, SP, WAS ($3,846): The Braves don't love to face lefties and Lannan got obliterated last time out vs. the Phils, but other than that has looked far more functional than a sub-$4K price tag should garner.
• Hiroki Kuroda, SP, LAD ($10,423): The Mets knocked around Kuroda at Citi which was hard to see coming, but that's in the past, the important thing is now you get a discount on him to face the free-swinging Pirates who will likely have trouble with his stuff.

And remember, good streaks are great, but always look both ways before crossing the 'Street.